Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 032049
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North
Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina,
to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina
to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the
North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster
motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.
A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed
by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning.  On this
track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to
the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through
Wednesday night.  The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next couple of days.

Dorian has become a larger hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama
Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida tonight. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late tonight or early
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical Storm conditions will
begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday,
with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight.  This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



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