Local Statement for Dorian (Melbourne, FL)

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
1208 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Hurricane Dorian offshore Cape Canaveral Will Make its Closest
 Approach to Volusia County Overnight into Wednesday Morning**

**Severe Beach Erosion and Coastal Inundation expected in Coastal
 Volusia and Brevard Counties During the Upcoming High Tide**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for 
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard, and Southern Brevard
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect 
      for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia, 
      Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles east-southeast of Daytona Beach FL or about 100 
      miles east of Cape Canaveral FL
    - 28.4N 79.0W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian is now about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral in
northern Brevard County and moving north-northwest at 6 mph. Dorian
will continue moving parallel to the Volusia County coast through
mid day Wednesday before turning north and away from east central 
Florida at a faster forward speed through Wednesday night. The latest
forecast for Dorian keeps the western eye wall of Dorian about 50 to 
60 miles offshore Volusia County at its closest approach. 

The main concern overnight will be the very high threat for additional
severe beach erosion from a combination of storm surge and wave runup 
during the high astronomical tide which will being around midnight. In 
addition, increasingly hazardous weather conditions will spread into 
Volusia County, with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, along 
with an increased potential for poor drainage flooding in onshore 
moving squalls. Squally weather will continue farther south along the 
coast, especially in Brevard County, with a slow easing of winds and 
squalls overnight from Indian County southward.

The strongest winds will occur along the barrier islands of Volusia 
and northern Brevard Counties overnight into early Wednesday. Sustained
winds of 45 to 55 mph will occur as the eye of Dorian makes its 
closest point of approach, with gusts up to hurricane force in squalls
that move onshore. Some squalls will make it into the interior 
overnight as well with gusts to 50 mph or so possible from northern
Osceola County through greater Orlando, Sanford and the Lake George
region. Persons in Brevard and Volusia Counties, people should remain
indoors overnight until winds and squalls subside.

Surge will reach 3 to 5 feet above ground from Cape Canaveral north to
Flagler Beach and may reach 2 to 4 feet from Cape Canaveral to Jupiter 
Inlet. The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the 
coast will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with 
coastal flooding possible in low lying areas along the river. 

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during the high tide cycle
around midnight.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over coastal Volusia and
Brevard Counties, with much lower amounts to the south and inland.
Isolated urban and poor drainage flooding will be most likely in these
two counties. Flooding and high water levels on the Saint Johns River 
will be aggravated by any additional rainfall.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore Volusia and northern Brevard Counties 
along the coast through sunrise.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding from
Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having additional significant impacts. These impacts include:

    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by 
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become 
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low 
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and 
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. 
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
      unprotected anchorages.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
Volusia and northern Brevard Counties. Remain well sheltered from 
potentially damaging wind gusts having extensive impacts. If realized, 
these impacts include:

    - Roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door,
      and garage door failures leading to structural damage, especially
      to mobile homes.
    - Large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway 
      signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from debris, and more within urban or
      heavily wooded places.
    - Areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding 
across eastern Lake, Seminole, Orange and inland Volusia Counties. 
Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible in any squalls.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Volusia and northern Brevard Counties. Remain well guarded against
dangerous flood waters having additional significant impacts. If 
realized, these impacts include:

    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter 
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially 
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, 
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. 
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid 
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as 
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions 
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across coastal
Volusia and Brevard Counties. Remain well braced against a tornado 
event having possible impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.


Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is 
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear 
to return. Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the
all clear to return.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in 
case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged 
cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose 
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and 
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or 
videos. This is especially true along the coast and beaches! You will
be at significant risk of being knocked down and swept out to sea by 
large breaking waves and numerous strong rip currents!



NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$