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000 WTUS82 KMLB 040408 HLSMLB FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-041100- Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 43 National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL052019 1208 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA **Hurricane Dorian offshore Cape Canaveral Will Make its Closest Approach to Volusia County Overnight into Wednesday Morning** **Severe Beach Erosion and Coastal Inundation expected in Coastal Volusia and Brevard Counties During the Upcoming High Tide** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard, and Southern Brevard - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia, Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Southern Lake * STORM INFORMATION: - About 130 miles east-southeast of Daytona Beach FL or about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral FL - 28.4N 79.0W - Storm Intensity 110 mph - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 6 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Hurricane Dorian is now about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral in northern Brevard County and moving north-northwest at 6 mph. Dorian will continue moving parallel to the Volusia County coast through mid day Wednesday before turning north and away from east central Florida at a faster forward speed through Wednesday night. The latest forecast for Dorian keeps the western eye wall of Dorian about 50 to 60 miles offshore Volusia County at its closest approach. The main concern overnight will be the very high threat for additional severe beach erosion from a combination of storm surge and wave runup during the high astronomical tide which will being around midnight. In addition, increasingly hazardous weather conditions will spread into Volusia County, with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, along with an increased potential for poor drainage flooding in onshore moving squalls. Squally weather will continue farther south along the coast, especially in Brevard County, with a slow easing of winds and squalls overnight from Indian County southward. The strongest winds will occur along the barrier islands of Volusia and northern Brevard Counties overnight into early Wednesday. Sustained winds of 45 to 55 mph will occur as the eye of Dorian makes its closest point of approach, with gusts up to hurricane force in squalls that move onshore. Some squalls will make it into the interior overnight as well with gusts to 50 mph or so possible from northern Osceola County through greater Orlando, Sanford and the Lake George region. Persons in Brevard and Volusia Counties, people should remain indoors overnight until winds and squalls subside. Surge will reach 3 to 5 feet above ground from Cape Canaveral north to Flagler Beach and may reach 2 to 4 feet from Cape Canaveral to Jupiter Inlet. The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal flooding possible in low lying areas along the river. Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge will add to the destructive force of the water during the high tide cycle around midnight. Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over coastal Volusia and Brevard Counties, with much lower amounts to the south and inland. Isolated urban and poor drainage flooding will be most likely in these two counties. Flooding and high water levels on the Saint Johns River will be aggravated by any additional rainfall. While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in squalls as they move onshore Volusia and northern Brevard Counties along the coast through sunrise. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Remain well away from life-threatening surge having additional significant impacts. These impacts include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * WIND: Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across Volusia and northern Brevard Counties. Remain well sheltered from potentially damaging wind gusts having extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - Roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage, especially to mobile homes. - Large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. - Areas with power and communications outages. Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding across eastern Lake, Seminole, Orange and inland Volusia Counties. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible in any squalls. * FLOODING RAIN: Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across Volusia and northern Brevard Counties. Remain well guarded against dangerous flood waters having additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADOES: Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across coastal Volusia and Brevard Counties. Remain well braced against a tornado event having possible impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return. Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy. Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and check-ins. Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or videos. This is especially true along the coast and beaches! You will be at significant risk of being knocked down and swept out to sea by large breaking waves and numerous strong rip currents! NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$