Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 052050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach,
South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach SC
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue
to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next
several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North
Carolina tonight and Friday.  The center should move to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and
Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or
Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the
center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.  Dorian
is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by
Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).  NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently
reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74
mph (118 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the
South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for
a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting
other portions of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the
next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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