Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 081453
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now over the
northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence.  There are no observations from
the area southeast of the center where the strongest winds are
likely to be.  However, the winds at the nearby land stations are
gradually decreasing.  Based on this and some decay in the cloud
pattern, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  The global
models forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is
absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between
36-48 h.  The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided
guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii.

The cyclone is now moving northeastward or 035/22 kt.  This general
motion should continue through this evening, with the center of
Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern
Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic.  This should be
followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the
cyclone's life.  The dynamical model guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the
previous advisory.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada today.  Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely
in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland,
and eastern Nova Scotia.  Hurricane-force winds are expected to
spread into western Newfoundland this afternoon.  Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 50.0N  59.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  09/0000Z 52.3N  55.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1200Z 54.7N  49.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0000Z 56.2N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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