Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 092033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show symmetric convection around the
center of Gabrielle despite some gradual warming in the cloud tops
seen in the latest GOES infrared imagery. The initial wind speed was
maintained at 45 kt, near the TAFB satellite estimate and a little
above the SAB estimate.

Gabrielle remains on a northeastward motion and is moving a bit
faster than the previous advisory, or 040/18 kt. The system is
expected to further increase in forward speed in a similar direction
over the next couple of days due to strengthening southwesterly flow
near a mid-latitude trough.  Only a slight northward adjustment was
made to the prior NHC forecast since, overall, model guidance
remains tightly clustered with the track of Gabrielle.

The storm has less than a day over marginally warm waters
before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into much
colder waters. Gabrielle should transition into an extratropical low
on Tuesday night as a result of an increase in shear and
low-level baroclinicity from an approaching cold front. The
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
forecast and continues to use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model
wind fields.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 40.7N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 42.6N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 45.1N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 48.2N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/1800Z 52.0N  22.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake



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