Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 090834
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Deep convection associated with Gabrielle has become somewhat
less organized overnight with the center located near the
northeastern portion of the coldest cloud tops.  There is still
banding present over the southern and southwestern portions of the
circulation but it has become fragmented.  Gabrielle has likely
peaked in intensity, and the latest satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.
Little change in intensity is expected today while Gabrielle remains
over warm water and within a moderate shear environment.  By
tonight, decreasing SSTs and increasing southerly shear should
begin to cause gradual weakening.  Shortly after that time,
the global models indicate Gabrielle will become embedded within a
baroclinic zone and become extratropical.  The extratropical low is
predicted to slowly weaken and be absorbed by a larger low pressure
system over the northeastern Atlantic in a little more than 3 days.

Gabrielle has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion
estimate of 015/14 kt.  Gabrielle should turn northeastward today
and begin to accelerate ahead of a broad mid-level trough
approaching the central Atlantic.  Once the cyclone is fully
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, an additional
acceleration toward the northeast is expected.  There is good
agreement among the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory.  The official forecast
track remains between the TVCA and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 37.7N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 39.7N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 42.2N  42.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 44.8N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/0600Z 48.1N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/0600Z 55.8N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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