Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities

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FONT14 KNHC 131455
PWSAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   4(22)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   4(22)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  13(29)   2(31)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   9(29)   1(30)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   4(18)   1(19)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   X(19)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)   X(19)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   3(25)   X(25)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  27(48)   4(52)   X(52)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   2(23)   X(23)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  12(28)   1(29)   X(29)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   2(15)   X(15)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  18(33)  11(44)   1(45)   X(45)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  10(29)   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   6(25)   2(27)   X(27)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   1(17)   1(18)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  1  16(17)  14(31)   4(35)   4(39)   2(41)   X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)

ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



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