Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion

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202 
WTNT44 KNHC 141449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it
is still located south of the main area of deep convection.
Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band
is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an
Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have
increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45
kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the
center of the cyclone.

The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken,
and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of
the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity
forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and
the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models
intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely
moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a
ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The
expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward
the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies,
and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away
from the United States with no significant increase in forward
speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin
to accelerate.  The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track
guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and
the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today.  Significant
storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this
system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 26.6N  76.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 27.6N  77.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 28.7N  78.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 29.5N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 30.0N  77.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 30.5N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 31.5N  70.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 34.5N  63.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




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