Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 190255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
restored.  However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few
hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting
sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt.
Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite
a decaying appearance in satellite imagery.  The SFMR surface wind
estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center,
and the central pressure was near 952 mb.  Based on these data,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to
undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models
forecast to be complete by 36 h.  Those models forecast that the
cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition
until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120
h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The new
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast,
with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20.  Humberto is forecast to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the
next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 34.0N  63.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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