Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities

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FONT15 KNHC 191454
PWSAT5

HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABA           34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AVES           34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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