Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 202052
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  62.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  62.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  61.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N  63.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N  65.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N  67.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N  68.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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