Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 211453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry
this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite
disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane
at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the
intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and
the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so
its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.

Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on
the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes
were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue
northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a
break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry
should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction
ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near
Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is
still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the
forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the
5-day period.

Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening
is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little
change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't
rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or
tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could
then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to
baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane
again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is
now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 22.0N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 23.3N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 25.0N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 26.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 27.8N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 30.6N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 34.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 38.5N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



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