Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 232040
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today.  Visible
satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a
broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a
well-defined center.  Based on the current lack of organization,
the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt.  The
environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile,
with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing
overnight.  After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western
Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level
environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it
should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur.
As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt.  Karen should turn
northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry.  A
northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over
the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid-
week.  After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build
over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic,
which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary
at days 4 and 5.  The track guidance has trended toward Karen
gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track
forecast as been adjusted accordingly.  The latter portion of the
track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model
guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it
passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm
warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the
wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition,
windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could
experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1.  Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.9N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 17.2N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 18.9N  66.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 21.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 23.3N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 27.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 27.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



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