Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities

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FONT12 KNHC 232040
PWSAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019               
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

PONCE PR       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

VIEQUES PR     34  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT CROIX    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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