Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 230854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear.  However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again.  The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.

The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels.  There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm.  The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance.  The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast.  A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario.  The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 27.8N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 28.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 30.1N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 31.3N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 32.6N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 35.5N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 37.0N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 37.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



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