Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion

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979 
WTNT45 KNHC 250240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the
cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours.  An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this
evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of
34 to 36 kt.  The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation
yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps
conservatively, to 40 kt.  Increasing shear and dry air that is
being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to
continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next
couple of days.  If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning.
Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential
to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would
continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that
island.  The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little
more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.

Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or
025/4 kt.  The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday
as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught
within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry
get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn
southeastward before dissipation occurs.  The official track
forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is
closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 31.4N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 32.2N  67.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 33.0N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 33.8N  62.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 34.4N  59.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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