Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 251459
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry
mid-level air and strong westerly shear.  Data from a new
scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more
than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous.  The system
should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and
simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no
significant deep convection will redevelop within it.  Therefore
the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually
spin down over the next 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
just slightly below the model consensus.

The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase
in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt.
Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of
the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two.
Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn
east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
high pressure area, and dissipate.  The official track forecast
continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather
closely.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 32.0N  66.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/0000Z 32.6N  65.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  26/1200Z 33.4N  62.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 34.3N  60.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 34.9N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 33.8N  54.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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