Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 262046
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  40.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT.......100NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE  80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  40.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  40.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N  41.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.6N  43.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N  43.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.9N  43.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N  42.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.5N  39.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N  35.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N  40.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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