Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion

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501 
WTNT43 KNHC 261453
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests
that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the
outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z.  Around that
time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye
becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery.  Raw
Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the
Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to
near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently
received scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion is 295/11.  Lorenzo is approaching a developing
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude
troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance
models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve
through the break during the forecast period.  There are no
significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and
there are no significant changes to the forecast track either.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area
of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4
days.  This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in
the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds.
Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected during the 12-36 h period.  The global models suggest
that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough
during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear
and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h.  By 120 h, the
hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into
strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 15.4N  40.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N  41.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 18.5N  42.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 20.2N  43.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N  43.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 25.2N  43.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 29.0N  41.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven




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