Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion

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341 
WTNT42 KNHC 270233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA
buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure
occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are
rising at the buoy.  The data from the buoy and recent satellite
imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated
with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a
convective mass.  However, some curved rainbands are developing on
the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak.  T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous
initial intensity of 35 kt.  A very recent partial ASCAT pass
measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area
where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly
hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter,
the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this
anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and
become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate
into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055
degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours
as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most
likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The
system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in
3 days or so as forecast by global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 27.8N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 28.3N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 28.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 28.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 28.3N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 28.0N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila




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