Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 281447
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  44.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  35SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 190SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  44.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  44.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N  44.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N  44.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N  43.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  55SE  50SW  55NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N  43.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 65NE  65SE  55SW  55NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.3N  39.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N  29.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 51.0N  16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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