Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 281447
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall
replacement.  37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a
smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new
eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation.  An
eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite
imagery during the past several hours.  Based on Dvorak intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of
T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.

Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate
that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of
350/9 kt.  The track forecast remains straightforward, with very
little spread among the models and their ensembles.  Lorenzo is
expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward
starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western
Atlantic.  The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day
3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the
north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue
through day 5.  The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids
and is very similar to the previous forecast.

A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo,
but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation
significantly.  Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the
intensity models.  Extratropical transition is expected to have
begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that
process is not expected to be complete until day 5.  Although
Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the
extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the
cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force
wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of
days.  In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away
from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern
side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 22.5N  44.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 23.8N  44.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 25.6N  44.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 27.1N  43.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 28.8N  43.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 33.3N  39.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 40.5N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 51.0N  16.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg



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