Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 290006
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this
evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have
become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the
Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data,
a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the
initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind
speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or
intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days.  These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0000Z 23.8N  45.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 24.6N  44.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 26.3N  44.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 29.7N  42.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 34.8N  38.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 42.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 49.0N  13.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto



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