Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory

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WTNT23 KNHC 300836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  43.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  43.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  43.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N  42.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N  40.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  36.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.5N  31.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 52.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...390NE 360SE 320SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 57.0N  13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  43.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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