Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 112032
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Melissa continues to churn south-southwest of New England. A
late-morning scatterometer overpass indicated that the large wind
field remains in tact with only a slight decrease in maximum winds,
while satellite imagery continues to show banding surrounding the
circulation center. A recent Hebert-Poteat intensity estimate from
TAFB also suggests some slight weakening, and the intensity will be
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

Strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Melissa to weaken over
next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become
post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then
expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

For the past few hours, Melissa has been moving slowly
south-southeastward as the cyclone remains in weak steering flow
under an upper-level trough. Later tonight, an approaching
mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin
to force an eastward motion, with a gradual increase in forward
speed Saturday through Monday. This motion will continue until
the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast
was adjusted a little to the right due to a southward shift in the
guidance and lies on the northern edge of the consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the
central Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are
associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. The expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along
portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to
southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these
hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices at weather.gov.

2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away
from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease
in wind and coastal flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 38.2N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 38.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 38.3N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 38.8N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1800Z 39.2N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z 40.7N  52.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto



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