Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 130242
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over
Melissa, and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the
western edge of the central convective mass.  However, this has not
yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates.  The initial intensity
thus remains 45 kt.  There have been significant changes to the
initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is now 080/12.  Melissa should be steered
generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of
the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a
frontal zone after 72 h.  There is little change to either the
forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory,
and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus
models.

Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the
next three days.  In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy
of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm
should encounter much colder water.  This combination should cause
Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after
24 h.  While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous
forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep
Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage
over the warm water eddy.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Key Messages:

1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still
expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern
coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend.
For more information, see products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 38.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 39.2N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 40.2N  57.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 41.1N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z 42.0N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z 42.2N  35.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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