Local Statement for Sixteen (New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA)

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WTUS84 KLIX 171605
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LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-180015-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service New Orleans LA  AL162019
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

This product covers Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 has developed in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.  The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight.

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lower Jefferson, 
      Lower Plaquemines, and Lower St. Bernard

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lower Jefferson, 
      Lower Plaquemines, and Lower St. Bernard

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles southwest of New Orleans LA or about 590 miles 
      southwest of Grand Isle LA
    - 22.4N 95.7W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across 
extreme southeastern Louisiana and the coastal waters.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, little to 
no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited 
impacts across coastal southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along 
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas 
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread 
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, little to 
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across southeast 
Louisiana and south Mississippi.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across southeast 
Louisiana and south Mississippi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and 
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a 
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of 
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any 
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency 
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are 
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles 
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide 
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly 
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an 
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in 
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which 
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay 
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and 
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge 
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find 
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed 
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone 
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded 
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter 
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not 
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter 
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large 
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or 
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of 
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets 
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes 
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather 
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in New Orleans LA around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$



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