Local Statement for Sixteen (Tampa Bay Area, FL)

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL  AL162019
541 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS** 


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge 
      Warning for Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Levy, 
      Coastal Pasco, and Pinellas

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect 
      for Coastal Levy
    - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Citrus, Coastal 
      Hernando, Coastal Pasco, and Pinellas

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 870 miles west-southwest of Cedar Key FL or about 840 
      miles west-southwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL
    - 22.9N 95.2W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is situated over the southwest Gulf of 
Mexico and is expected to move northeast and approach the Florida 
panhandle Friday evening. Primary concerns along the Florida west coast
will be for heavy rainfall and minor coastal flooding.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across the Nature Coast through just north of the Tampa Bay. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by 
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become 
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low 
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and 
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. 
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no 
impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across the Nature Coast. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. 
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen 
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually 
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water 
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become 
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge 
      closures. 

Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no 
impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across 
West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
northern Levy County. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no 
impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies 
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your 
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the 
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging 
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the 
center of the storm. 

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large 
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or 
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as 
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor 
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe 
shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that 
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of 
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded 
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of 
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness 
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news 
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes 
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways 
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

$$



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