Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion

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357 
WTNT43 KNHC 280835
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Convection associated with Pablo has decreased significantly in both
coverage and vertical depth during the past 6 hours, and the system
barely meets the convective criterion to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. What bit of convection that does remain is limited to the
southeastern quadrant.  The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
a TAFB T-number classification of T3.0/45 kt and an earlier ASCAT
pass that showed some 45-kt vectors present in the southeastern
quadrant.

Pablo made a jog toward the northwest since the previous advisory,
but the small cyclone now appears to be moving slowly northward or
360/04 kt.  The latest model guidance remains in reasonable
agreement that Pablo and its remnants will move slowly northward
for the next day or so around the northeastern periphery of a large
extratropical centered several hundred miles to the southwest.
Pablo is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become
post-tropical later today.

Some additional weakening is likely during the next 24 hours due
to Pablo moving over even cooler sea-surface temperatures than the
16.5 deg C water that the cyclone is currently passing over.

Pablo's 34-kt wind radii have been separated from the larger parent
extratropical low's wind field based on late-arriving ASCAT surface
wind data that indicated that Pablo's small wind field a had
detached from the larger wind radii associated with the broad
extratropical low. Additional information on this complex low
pressure system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
NOAA National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 46.6N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 47.3N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/0600Z 48.1N  17.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart




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