Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 170311 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CORRECTED 12-HOUR 34-KT WIND RADII

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  77.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N  77.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N  76.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N  75.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N  73.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N  70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N  69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N  67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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