Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory

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WTNT21 KNHC 170847
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBERMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  77.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE   0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  77.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  77.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N  77.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.2N  76.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N  72.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.3N  69.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N  67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  77.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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