Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory

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WTNT21 KNHC 172031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  77.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  77.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  77.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.1N  76.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.3N  74.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.6N  71.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.8N  69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.3N  67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.6N  66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.0N  64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N  77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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