Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory

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198 
WTNT21 KNHC 180834
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  76.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  76.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  76.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N  74.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N  72.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.5N  69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.6N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N  65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...160NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N  63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N  76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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