Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion

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925 
WTNT42 KNHC 271432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined 
through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount 
Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated 
that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt. 
Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with 
onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South 
Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that 
tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area 
over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical 
depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the 
center moves farther inland. 

Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone 
north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to 
the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on 
Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous 
one and is near the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across 
portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to 
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia.  Ongoing river 
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. 

2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to 
portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over 
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 33.3N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 35.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1200Z 38.8N  79.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven




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