Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 020234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico, 
indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or 
strength since the previous advisory.  There are a couple of small 
clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated 
convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the 
center.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface 
data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now westward or 270/6.  The evolution of this 
system during the next several days remains quite uncertain.  The 
Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow 
counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America 
during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of 
the Bay of Campeche.  This would be followed by a more northward 
motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level 
trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  On the other 
hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and 
making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h, 
followed by dissipation.  These two models subsequently develop a 
second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at 
around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and 
trough.  The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in 
showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the 
Gulf.  However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast 
of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous 
advisory.  It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be 
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3.

In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should 
occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm 
water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to 
moderate shear.  After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should 
limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast 
intensities could be generous.  The more northward motion near the 
end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an 
increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is 
forecast during that time.  Overall, the new intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous forecast.  An alternative intensity 
forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over 
Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by 
the GFS and ECMWF.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and 
intensity forecasts are currently low confidence.  However, either 
of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.6N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.6N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.2N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.8N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.6N  93.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 18.5N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 18.5N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 19.5N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 22.0N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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