Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion

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878 
WTNT43 KNHC 040239
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation.  The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening.  The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place.  Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico.  Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur.  After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification.  The updated NHC intensity forecast 
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory, 
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model 
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. 

Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight.  Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track 
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is 
close to the various consensus models.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through 
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern 
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern 
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of storm surge, 
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along 
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. 
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and 
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor 
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan 
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 18.3N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0000Z 18.4N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1200Z 19.7N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0000Z 21.3N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/1200Z 23.1N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 24.9N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 28.8N  91.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 32.5N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown




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