Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 041444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS THERE AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  91.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  91.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  91.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N  90.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N  90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N  90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE   0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.7N  90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.8N  91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.0N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  91.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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