Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 081442
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Cristobal continues to move further inland.  Surface observations
along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is
located over northeastern Louisiana.  The minimum pressure is
estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30
kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of
the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.  The depression is still
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the
north and east of the center.

The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and
the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate
north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the
flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west.
This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants,
across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the
next few days.

Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal
continues to track inland.  However, slight re-intensification as
an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system
over the Upper Mississippi Valley.  The combination of Cristobal
and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over
portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle
of the week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal.  Future advisories will
be issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push
inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight
through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated
significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier
rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the
Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 32.5N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  09/0000Z 34.3N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 38.0N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0000Z 42.4N  90.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z 47.4N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  11/0000Z 51.1N  84.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z 52.2N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1200Z 51.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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