Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion

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504 
WTNT44 KNHC 230817
TCDAT4

Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

Deep convection has increased during the past several hours in the 
diurnal convective maximum, although there isn't much organization 
to the activity.  The depression is situated beneath an 
upper-level low, and the system has a large radius-of-maximum 
winds, so it is still subtropical.  The initial intensity is 30 kt, 
based on persistence from the earlier scatterometer data.  While it 
is possible the depression could become a storm later today, 
rapidly cooling SSTs should cause the system to weaken on 
Wednesday, and open up into a trough on or before Thursday. 

The depression is moving northeastward at about 11 kt. There 
is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will 
continue moving in the same general direction with some 
acceleration during the next couple of days, embedded within the 
mid-latitude southwesterlies. The new track forecast has been 
nudged slightly to the north of the previous one, close to the NOAA 
corrected-consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 39.3N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 40.0N  61.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 41.4N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0600Z 45.3N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake




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