Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion

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519 
WTNT44 KNHC 231640
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Special Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

A 1348 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, arriving just after the 
previous advisory was issued, indicates that the cyclone is 
producing winds of 35-40 kt in its southern semicircle.  In 
addition, the radius of maximum winds has contracted to about 40 n 
mi.  This, along with the current convective pattern, suggests that 
the system has made a transition from a subtropical to a tropical 
cyclone, and it has been designated as Tropical Storm Dolly.

This Special Advisory package is being issued to update the 
intensity and wind radii forecasts, increasing Dolly's maximum 
winds at each forecast time by 5 kt during the next 24 hours. The 
forecast track and status changes are the same as in the previous 
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1700Z 39.4N  61.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 40.6N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 42.3N  58.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 44.2N  55.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg




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