Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 240232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to 
move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream.  Given 
the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is 
gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore 
estimated to be near 35 kt.  This is also consistent with data from 
a recent scatterometer overpass.  Within 24 hours, the system will 
be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have 
degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection.  The 
global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36 
hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48 
hours, if not sooner.

The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around 
060/9 kt.  There is no change to the track forecast reasoning,  
Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward 
speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the 
southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies.  The 
official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on 
top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 40.5N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 41.8N  58.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 43.9N  55.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1200Z 45.8N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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