Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

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132 
WTNT45 KNHC 042031
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since 
the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall
pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of
the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning
showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center,
and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity.

No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and
intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical
models for the intensity.

The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the 
flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A 
combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting 
better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By 
Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to 
strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or 
merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system 
could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, 
as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models 
also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes 
extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous 
cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the 
rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes 
near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of 
its circulation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 31.8N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 33.1N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 35.3N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 38.3N  56.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 41.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 44.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




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