Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 050238
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of 
deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center.  The 
intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this 
evening, perhaps generously.  The cyclone should accelerate to the 
east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters 
stronger mid-level flow.  Track guidance is tightly clustered, and 
no significant changes were made to the previous forecast.  

After tonight's diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of 
the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear 
and cooler waters.  Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is 
forecast, similar to the model consensus.  Extratropical transition 
is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in 
a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the 
depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the 
latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity 
with the previous one.

Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start 
on Bermuda during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 32.5N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 34.0N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 37.0N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 39.7N  53.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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