Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 041451
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end 
of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight 
while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of 
organization. Although the low's center has recently become 
obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is 
well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to 
be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 
2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity.

The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught 
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough 
to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable 
for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that 
the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an 
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC 
track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection 
northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong 
upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest 
are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone 
will get much better organized during the next day or two. That 
said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to 
the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC 
intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and 
GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance 
indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently 
supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the 
system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and 
dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical 
transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast 
is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low 
for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 31.1N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 32.1N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 34.0N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 36.4N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 39.2N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 41.7N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



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