Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

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370 
WTNT45 KNHC 050836
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression 
Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing 
cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on 
Bermuda indicating some banding.  An earlier scatterometer 
overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and 
so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda 
have been in the 20-30 kt range.  Based on this, the initial 
intensity remains 30 kt. 

The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17.   The cyclone 
should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next 
couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude 
westerlies.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although 
the guidance has trended faster for this advisory.  Based on this, 
the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than, 
the previous forecast.

Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak 
intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus.  The 
guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by 
36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that.  It 
remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough 
later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with 
the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone.

Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for 
the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 33.3N  64.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 35.4N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 38.3N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 41.4N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/0600Z 44.4N  43.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven




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