Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion

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499 
WTNT45 KNHC 051434
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

The depression is accelerating northeastward, away from Bermuda. It 
continues to produce deep convection primarily to the south of its 
center with little change in organization since yesterday. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak classification supports maintaining the intensity 
at 30 kt. Scatterometer data that will likely arrive after the 
issuance of this advisory may provide more information about the 
current surface wind structure of the cyclone.

No substantial changes were made to the NHC forecast. The cyclone
will continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or two. It is possible that the depression could
open into a trough at some point today as its forward speed
increases, but most of the dynamical guidance indicates it will
persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition on Monday.
Minimal strengthening is possible today as the forward speed of the
depression increases and it begins to get some positive baroclinic
support. In fact, nearly all of the global models indicate that the
system will produce tropical-storm-force winds around the time it
becomes fully extratropical, and this is reflected in the official
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 34.5N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 36.6N  59.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 39.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 42.5N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/1200Z 45.8N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




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