Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 061442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020

Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level
center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep
convection.  A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the
northwest and there are signs that Edouard's extratropical
transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial
intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the
rapid forward speed of the cyclone.  ASCAT data should provide a
better assessment of Edouard's intensity very shortly.

Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of
055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and
heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an
area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is
again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to
the previous advisory.

Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the
approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its
extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours.  Little change
in strength is expected as this occurs.  Gradual weakening should
begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple
of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 40.8N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 43.2N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 46.7N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 50.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 53.0N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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