Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion

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058 
WTNT43 KNHC 261445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data from Brownsville, Texas,
indicate that Hanna continues to weaken as it moves farther
inland.  The radar shows a couple of fairly well-defined bands of
convection over the eastern semicircle and tropical-storm-force
wind gusts have been reported at observing sites along the
U.S./Mexico border within the past couple of hours.  The initial
intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is based primarily on
recent observations and Doppler radar velocities.  Hanna should
continue to weaken quickly during the next 12-24 hours as it moves
inland over Mexico.  Hanna is forecast to become a tropical
depression later today and dissipate over the mountainous terrain
of Mexico by Monday night.

Hanna is moving west-southwestward or 250/8 kt.  The system is
forecast to continue moving west-southwestward around the southern
portion of a mid-level ridge over the central United States.  The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies
near the various consensus aids.


Key Messages

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to persist into this
afternoon near and to the east of the center of Hanna.

2. Heavy rainfall from Hanna has already produced numerous reports 
of flash flooding across south Texas.  Additional heavy rainfall 
will continue to cause life-threatening flash flooding over south 
Texas and northern Mexico, and isolated minor to moderate river 
flooding in south Texas.

3. Storm surge along the Texas coast should continue to diminish
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 26.1N  99.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 25.5N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  27/1200Z 25.0N 101.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/0000Z 24.9N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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