Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 290252
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF ITS COUNTRY FROM THE BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA
CAUCEDO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND
THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO
PUNTA CAUCEDO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  59.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  59.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  58.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N  62.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE   0SE   0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.4N  65.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE   0SE   0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N  69.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE  60SE   0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N  72.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE  90SE   0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N  77.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.9N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  59.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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