Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory

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WTNT24 KNHC 310853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  73.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT.......180NE  90SE  50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE  90SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  73.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  72.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N  75.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N  78.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N  79.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.8N  79.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N  79.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  73.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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